A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
